Even though the U.S. and Israelis could obliterate Iranian nuclear weapons capabilities through air strikes, Iran’s possession of missiles like the Fattah-1 means that Iranian retaliation is a significant threat to the region.
Two years ago, in June 2023, the Islamic Republic of Iran unveiled the Fattah-1, the country’s first hypersonic ballistic missile—at least according to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. Fattah means “Conqueror” in Farsi.
The missile represents a significant milestone in Iran’s military ambitions, signaling its intent to project power—and highlights the radical, evolving nature of Iran’s missile threat. In many respects, this threat is even more of a concern to Western strategists than Iran’s threshold nuclear weapons capability. After all, even if Iran developed such weapons, it could not use them without inviting its own annihilation. But if Tehran had truly developed a hypersonic ballistic missile, everyone knows which nation it would be first to target.
Did Russia Give Iran a Hypersonic Weapon?
Fattah-1 is described as a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) with a reported range of around 870 miles, capable of targeting multiple locations across the Greater Middle East, notably Israel. Iranian officials claim it can achieve speeds between Mach 13 and Mach 15, which is well above the Mach 5 threshold for hypersonic weapons classification.
Given Iran’s extremely close relationship with Russia, and the fact that Russia has been paying for all the weapons transfers from both Iran and North Korea with advanced Russian systems, the presence of a working hypersonic weapons capability in Iran—a nation that has never been associated with cutting-edge engineering prowess—begs the question as to how Tehran got its hands on this system. It seems not only possible, but probable that the weapon was handed off to them by Russia, which has the most robust hypersonic weapons capacity of any of the world’s great powers.
Unlike traditional ballistic missiles that follow predictable parabolic trajectories, the Fattah-1 features a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV), enabling it to adjust its course mid-flight, both within and outside Earth’s atmosphere. This maneuverability, facilitated by a solid-fuel propulsion system and a movable secondary nozzle, is central to Fattah-1’s ability to evade most advanced missile defense systems, such as the Israeli Arrow, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome—or even American systems like the Aegis and Patriot.
In other words, the presence of Fattah-1 should give both the Americans and Israelis pause as to agitating for preventative air strikes against suspected Iranian nuclear weapons development facilities.
What Comes After a U.S. Air Strike on Iranian Nuclear Facilities?
While U.S. B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bombers could likely clobber Iranian nuclear facilities from the air, the Iranians can threaten retaliation against a long list of targets in the region—exposed U.S. bases near Iranian territory, sensitive oil refineries in neighboring Saudi Arabia, U.S. aircraft carriers in the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and even distant Israel. The bounty of soft targets in the region is a profound threat against which there is little reliable defense.
As for the missile’s solid-fuel propulsion, this offers practical advantages. Namely, the Fattah-1 can launch rapidly with a reduced logistical complexity compared to liquid-fueled systems. The missile carries a 771-to-992-pound conventional warhead. More ominously, some Western military analysts believe that the Fattah-1 could carry a nuclear warhead, too.
Iran is dead set on acquiring an arsenal of nuclear weapons. Tehran believes possessing these weapons will both ensure the survival of their increasingly brittle regime while also granting Iran leverage over their regional foes. Thus, the Iranian leadership will never renounce their nuclear weapons program willingly—at least not in the face of American and Israeli threats.
Even though the U.S. and Israelis could obliterate Iranian nuclear weapons capabilities through air strikes, Iran’s possession of missiles like the Fattah-1 means that Iranian retaliation is a significant threat to the region. Neither Washington nor Jerusalem should not downplay this real threat to their safety and economic prosperity.
And, for all the naysayers saying that Iran’s previous rounds of “massive retaliation” against Israel within the past year have fallen flat, it’s important to understand the geopolitical context. Iran appears to have held back its most important weapons in those retaliatory strikes—and there is evidence to suggest that they pulled their punches following pressure from their primary military partner, Russia.
Why Has Iran Been Holding Back?
Although the Russian hold over Iran is strong, the fact of the matter is that previous Israeli strikes against Iranian targets have avoided the country’s suspected nuclear weapons development facilities. These facilities represent the equivalent of the Holy Grail for the Iranian Islamist regime.
If either the Israelis or Americans struck these facilities and destroyed them—or even degraded them—it is unlikely that even Russia’s hold on Iran would dissuade the enraged Islamists from striking back against U.S., Israeli, and Saudi targets in ways hitherto unimagined.
Therefore, the Iranian missile threat is real. It should be avoided, if at all possible. And while negotiations with Iran are unlikely to achieve much, air strikes are a strategic mirage. The uncertainty and instability they can unleash in an already chaotic region is not worth the risk.
Instead, the Americans should finalize the Abraham Accords, linking the Israelis with the Sunni Arabs in the region, so that these local forces can coordinate a robust containment and deterrence strategy directed against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Otherwise, the region could be eviscerated by these Iranian missiles, such as the hypersonic Fattah-1.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / saeediex.
