Neither great power should seek war with each other. But, if war did come, it would almost certainly be a result of China initiating it over Taiwan’s status as a democratic nation.
President Donald Trump’s blanket tariffs on all of America’s trading partners has raised hackles among its traditional allies. But nowhere have the consequences been more acutely felt than among the normally cool leaders of the People’s Republic of China, against which Trump has declared an active trade war. That’s because, contrary to Beijing’s public messaging, Trump’s high tariff wall has damaged their otherwise relentless economy.
This was an inevitable outgrowth of China being such an export-driven economy—and running a trade surplus of hundreds of billions of dollars per year with the United States. If Americans no longer wish to purchase their mass-produced goods due to tariffs making it too costly an endeavor, then naturally, China’s economy slows.
And this, in turn, is having serious implications for the Chinese military.
China’s Real Threat Is Economic Dominance
Unlike the Soviet Union, which was always in service to a bankrupt economic model that had no chance of overcoming the United States, China’s threat to America has always been economic first and military second. From its economic dynamism, China was able to build—with witting and decidedly unwitting Western assistance—a world-class technology center, a dominant manufacturing sector, and a growing military threat.
All that is undermined with the trade war initiated by Trump. Chinese President Xi Jinping knows this. He’s likely getting worried.
Already under the proverbial gun because of his unilateral absorption of power in the Chinese system since 2012, President Xi is keenly aware of the risks associated with an economic downturn in China and the way in which it will harm politically. As things deteriorate at home, an increasingly desperate Xi will lash out abroad.
China’s “Wonder Weapons” Probably Aren’t Real
Within this context has come the inevitable posturing from an increasingly spasmodic China. From threats against China’s neighbors to claims of wünderwaffe hiding just beneath the thin veneer of peace, ready to be deployed at the unpredictable whims of President Xi, it’s important to separate the noise from the signal.
Whether it be the mythical Chinese sixth-generation warplane, or its fantastical laser-powered submarine that can attain “jet-like speeds” underwater, China is cranking out propaganda at breakneck speed.
To be clear, China really does have the capability to challenge the United States militarily and technologically, and its technological advancements should alarm U.S. policymakers. Indeed, their anti-access/area-denial and hypersonic weapons are advanced and truly worrisome. Yet it is vital that Americans understand that China is not invincible—nor is Chinese technology so far beyond the Americans that the United States should simply cede its dominant world status to the seemingly ascendant Chinese.
China’s “Non-Nuclear Hydrogen Bomb” Is Impressive—Not Revolutionary
Take, for example, these stupendous claims coming from a team of researchers at the prestigious China State Shipbuilding Corporation’s (CSSC) 705 Research Institute. The South China Morning Post reported that this team developed a 4.4-pound bomb composed of magnesium hydride and conventional explosives.
During a field test of this experimental weapon, a fireball burning at more than 1,832 degrees Fahrenheit was created by the blast that lasted for more than two seconds. Apparently, the magnesium hydride (MgH2) is the key to sustaining a chain reaction—and the lethality of this experimental weapon resides in its extreme heat.
Wang Xuefeng explained to reporters that the “precise control over blast intensity, easily achieving uniform destruction of targets across vast areas” made this system so significant.
Across social media, the hype was unbelievable.
One account with a massive following insisted that China created the equivalent of a “non-nuclear hydrogen bomb.” Others insisted this demonstrated that the United States should not even think of taking on China militarily.
Of course, neither great power should seek war with each other. But, if war did come, it would almost certainly be a result of China initiating it over Taiwan’s status as a democratic nation—not because America provoked it.
And while China’s “non-nuclear hydrogen bomb” should interest U.S. defense planners, it should not terrify them, either. The magnesium hydride explosion only has around 40 percent of the explosive force of TNT. Of course, it is not intended to replace TNT; it is intended to fry whatever target it is dropped on using heat rather than an explosive shockwave. But jingoistic Chinese netizens comparing the weapon to the nuclear hydrogen bomb are overstating their case.
In essence, China has built a thermobaric weapon. Russia has had such ghastly weapons for years. The United States has similar weapons, too. These systems are deployed to obliterate heavily defended and fortified structures or armored vehicles.
All Nations Hype. China Is Good at It.
The fact of the matter is, that while China has become a truly innovative military and technological dynamo, their military is untested, and their capabilities are heavily reliant on their country’s ability to maintain a high rate of economic growth.
Trump’s trade war has cut Beijing off at the knees—at least until the Chinese economy can adapt. There is no way of knowing what will happen next. But what is clear is the Trump administration’s moves have weakened China, at least for now—and this might prompt Xi to get more aggressive against his neighbors in order to whip up support at home.
But the excitement in China—and fear in the West—about Chinese wünderwaffe is, for the most part, hype.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Dancing-Man.
