The advanced sixth-gen aircraft is considered far too advanced to be exported for use in foreign militaries. Still, America‘s allies may also be unlikely to express interest in the F-47.
The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is the most successful fifth-generation fighter built to date, with more than 1,000 delivered. Even as Russia seeks to find foreign buyers for its Sukhoi Su-57, it is unlikely that it or any other aircraft will rival the Lightning II‘s success.
Yet, lightning won‘t strike twice, not just because Lockheed Martin appears out of the sixth-generation fighter competition. Last month, the aerospace and defense giant was eliminated from the soon-to-be-announced United States Navy‘s F/A-XX competition.
At the same time, Boeing was awarded the contract for the F-47, the centerpiece system of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program‘s system of system.
Boeing can expect to earn billions in sales from the F-47, which will replace Lockheed Martin‘s other fifth-gen fighter, the F-22 Raptor, when it enters service in the early 2030s.
And that‘s where history could repeat itself.
The F-22 was never approved for export sales, with the Pentagon citing security concerns over the transfer of the aircraft‘s advanced capabilities, including its stealth. As program costs grew and the needs of the United States Air Force changed, the planned order of 750 was scaled back to just 187 aircraft produced between 1996 and 2011.
Don‘t Expect Modern Fighter Aircraft Sales in a Foreign Market
While it is arguably way too early to discuss potential foreign military sales (FMS) plans for the Raptor, former Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall said he doesn‘t expect those to materialize, even as President Donald Trump indicated a “less-capable” export version could be produced.
“I would be very surprised if any of our partners were prepared to pay that unit cost for a new aircraft,” Kendall said during the Defense & Aerospace Report‘s “Air Power” podcast.
Kendall has warned that each F-47 could cost up to $180 million, or roughly twice as much as the current price tag on the F-35. Even America‘s closest allies may not be up for paying that much for the export model of the sixth-gen fighter jet, especially as Trump has vowed the capabilities might not be as significant.
The president argued, “Someday, maybe they‘re not our allies.”
That stance will continue to drive a wedge between Washington and even its closest partners, but it will also drive away sales for U.S. hardware.
“We have close allies traditionally, and we share some of the best of our capabilities with them because we have a lot of trust in them,” Kendall added. “This administration doesn‘t seem to be taking that point of view.”
Europe Has Its Sixth-Gen Fighters Aircraft
America‘s allies and partners may also be unlikely to express interest in the F-47, as two competing programs to develop sixth-generation fighters are underway in Europe. These include the British-led Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) with Italy and Japan.
Originally known as the Tempest while under development in the UK, the future stealth fighter is on track to replace Japan‘s F-2 and the Eurofighter Typhoon, which is currently operated by both the UK and Italy.
Multiple international firms are already involved in the aircraft‘s development, including BAE Systems, MBDA UK, Rolls-Royce in the UK, Leonardo in Italy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Japan.
The exact capabilities of the future aircraft haven‘t been disclosed. Still, it will likely be an “optionally manned” fighter equipped with an augmented reality (AR) cockpit and supported by unmanned aerial systems (UAS) that can act as “Adjuncts” or “loyal wingmen.”
There has also been speculation that the future stealth fighter could be equipped with directed-energy weapons and utilize artificial intelligence (AI) as a virtual co-pilot, assisting with flight operations and situational awareness.
The GCAP consortium has indicated that it has orders for at least 300 aircraft, and that is before significant details about the program have been released.
Then there is also the Franco-German-Spanish joint Future Combat Air System (FCAS), which has faced delays due to technology sharing between lead partners Dassault Aviation and Airbus, yet could be jump-started by Trump‘s recent comments.
Moreover, the French-based Dassault has seen widespread interest in its 4.5+ generation Rafale omnirole fighter, which could pave the way for future FCAS sales.
As Brandon J. Weichert wrote for The National Interest, “The Europeans, unlike the Americans, need to upgrade their warplane fleet. And burden-sharing among multiple nations just might lead to a sixth-generation plane worth the cost.”
Such burden-sharing won‘t be an option for the U.S., and with two competing programs that are likely to take flight in Europe, there also likely won‘t be foreign buyers for the F-47.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
Image: Wikimedia Commons/ U.S. Air Force.
