In a head-on fight between the Nimitz and the Shandong, there is little doubt that the American carrier would destroy the Chinese one. But there’s a catch.
Right now, the United States Navy has one nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the venerable USS Nimitz, loitering around the Pacific Ocean—whereas the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has ensured the balance of power in the region is decisively in their favor, at least for the time being. This is not just because any war would be fought in China’s proverbial backyard. It is also because the U.S. has overcommitted its finite military resources to the Middle East and Europe.
This pattern is slowly beginning to change. With the United States Marine Corps deploying the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) to the Luzon Strait linking the Philippines with the southernmost region of Taiwan, China is apoplectic. In the midst of the massive trade war with the United States, Beijing might just reach the end of their proverbial rope with the Americans. And if that occurs, the Chinese might go for broke against Taiwan at any moment.
The PLAN already sailed their Shandong carrier group through the Luzon Strait as the Marines were establishing the NMESIS anti-ship platform there. Currently, the Shandong PLAN carrier group is idling to the east of the Philippines. The Nimitz is on the periphery of the Indo-Pacific region, underway from San Diego, California. The Shandong and Nimitz would likely square off against each other first, if war broke out between the two.
The Defender: China’s Shandong Carrier
China’s Shandong (Type 002) aircraft carrier was Beijing’s domestically built aircraft carrier, commissioned on December 17, 2019. It displaces 66,000-to-70,000 tons (full load). The Shandong is powered by two conventional steam turbines, providing 31 knots (36 miles) per hour in cruising speed. It can carry up to 44 aircraft, including the J-15 fourth-generation+ warplane, Z-9 and Z-18 helicopters, as well as the KJ-600 early-warning aircraft, which is still under development.
This carrier is based on the old Soviet Kuznetsov-class design, with some improvements over China’s first carrier, the Liaoning (Type 001). The carrier notably features a STOBAR system—a ski jump—for aircraft takeoff.
Shandong is armed with Type 1130 Close-In Weapon System (CIWS), HQ-10 surface-to-air missiles, and anti-submarine rocket launchers. This boat has anywhere between 1,000 to 1,500 crewmen serving onboard her. The PLAN has less than 13 years of experience in carrier operations, primarily for training and regional power projection, with no combat experience.
The Challenger: America’s Aging Nimitz Carrier
She’s an old bucket of bolts, but she’s iconic. Commissioned in 1975 and continuously upgraded since then, the Nimitz is the namesake of her class. This carrier displaces less than 100,000 tons and is powered by two A4W nuclear reactors, enabling virtually unlimited range and sustained operations.
A Catapult-Assisted Take-off but Arrested Recovery (CATOBAR) system launches the ship’s warplanes into the air and recovers them upon landing. This system—far superior to the Shandong’s ski jump—has four steam catapults, allowing rapid, simultaneous launches of heavily armed aircraft.
As for the Nimitz’s air wing, it carries up to 90 aircraft, including F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, it can carry F-35C Lighting IIs, E-2D Hawkeye AWACS, EA-18G Growlers for electronic warfare, and helicopters. The air wing is truly versatile, with advanced avionics and precision-guided munitions augmenting its airborne lethality.
Nimitz is defended by a multi-layer defensive system that includes the RIM-162 Evolved Sea Sparrow missiles, RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missiles, Phalanx CIWS. These boats can also be defended by cruisers, destroyers, and submarines. Between 5,000-to-6,000 personnel (including the air wing personnel).
Does a Carrier Battle Favor the U.S. Side?
Americans have been operating carriers for decades. These complex military operations are not for the weak—or the inexperienced. In a head-on fight between the Nimitz and Shandong, there is little doubt that the Nimitz would destroy the Shandong.
But here’s the rub: because the fight would inevitably take place so near to Chinese shores, or territories which are populated by forward-deployed anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) systems, the Nimitz is at a decisive disadvantage.
China’s carriers, while meant to give the PLAN a blue-water naval capability, are not yet being deployed in that capacity. Instead, these ships are being used in tandem with China’s A2/AD systems, their hypersonic weapons, and whatever drone swarms they have developed over the years.
What’s more, any attack by China on U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific will almost certainly be presaged by a massive strike—a Pearl Harbor-type attack—on American satellite constellations, coupled with massive disruptions to the United States in cyberspace and across the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum.
Chinese space forces would likely stymie the ability for U.S. naval forces to coordinate a defense against whatever offensive China was planning. Cyber and EM spectrum disruptions would have the same results. The threat of overwhelming numbers of drones, missiles, and hypersonic weapons would likely keep the Nimitz operating far over the horizon, where their planes could do limited damage to the advancing Chinese military.
And if the Nimitz did get caught within the range of Chinese A2/AD systems and did try to take on the Shandong, the U.S. carrier would still be outnumbered and would need to contend with larger numbers of Chinese forces—with limited backup.
And with potential U.S. reinforcements focused on other parts of the world, and China’s ability to render U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific deaf, dumb, and blind—and likely overwhelm the defenses of those forces with swarming tactics—the Nimitz would likely lose.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
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