Despite local advances, the Russian military is struggling to maintain its offensive operations after almost one full year on the attack.
The Russian military seems to be running out of steam in Ukraine. For four months in a row, the Russian forces have been advancing at an increasingly slower pace.
Russia’s Offensive Has Stalled
“Russian territorial gains in Ukraine have decreased during the first quarter of 2025, with Russian forces highly likely seizing only 143 sq km [approximately 55 square miles] of Ukrainian territory in March 2025, an average of less than 5 square kilometers [1.9 square miles] per day,” the British Ministry of Defence assessed in its latest intelligence estimate on the Ukrainian conflict.
The Russian advance has been steadily slowing down since November.
“Russia’s rate of advance has dropped month by month since November 2024, when its forces seized more than 700 sq km [270 square miles],” the British Ministry of Defence added.
Over the past year, the Russian military has primarily concentrated its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region—the home of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Luhansk People’s Republic,” the two separatist regions whose eight-year war against Kyiv precipitated the broader Russian invasion. The Russian forces are focusing their attention on the part of the contact line because it aligns with the Kremlin’s strategic goal of splitting that region from Ukraine and directly or indirectly incorporating it into Russia. Indeed, the DPR and LPR were officially “annexed” into Russia in September 2022, following legally tenuous referenda in both territories.
“Most of the advances by Russian forces in March 2025 were in central Donetsk oblast, but Russia did not improve its operational position,” the British Ministry of Defence assessed.
The Ukrainian military has been on the lookout for opportunities to counterattack and liberate territory. The Ukrainian forces have been particularly active around the strategic urban center of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, where successful small-scale counterattacks have reversed some of the Russian military’s gains.
Two Possible Reasons Russia Is Faltering
The lackluster progress of the Russian military has not been restricted to the Donbas area. Indeed, the Russian forces’ steady, grinding offensive has slowed all along the line of contact.
“The level of Russian ground attack on several axes was reduced through much of March 2025. These began to increase towards the end of the month but have not resulted in a higher rate of advance,” the British Ministry of Defence concluded.
There are two main explanations for the slow advance of the Russian forces. First, the Kremlin intentionally held back during this period in order to avoid angering the Trump administration in the United States—which has substantially cut off security aid to Ukraine, but might be tempted to resume it if it perceived a major Russian offensive underway.
Second, the Russian military is struggling to maintain its offensive operations after almost one full year on the attack. Of course, these two reasons could go hand-in-hand and exist simultaneously.
Since last May, the Russian forces have been on the offensive across the line of contact. But 11 months on the attack has come at a cost. During that period, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces lost approximately 400,000 men killed and wounded. Such casualties are hard to replace, both logistically and politically. And despite Russia’s ability to sustain large numbers of casualties for prolonged periods of time, a military force cannot be on the offensive permanently.
Whatever the actual reason behind the stalling of the Russian offensive capability, the reality on the battlefield is that the Ukrainian forces seem to be holding their ground.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Shutterstock / Dmitriy Kandinskiy.
