If bombs begin to fall on Iranian nuclear weapons development facilities, it is certain that the Iranians will target any nearby Americans in response.
A recent report from Howard Altman at the defense news site The War Zone indicates that the Trump administration is contemplating returning half of all U.S. troops currently serving in Syria to the United States.
If one listens to conventional commentary and analysis of this proposal, one can expect to be greeted with a sea of emotions and handwringing. The U.S. position in Syria—which has persisted more or less unaltered since the 2016 fight with the Islamic State (ISIS), despite major changes on the ground—has become something of a sacred cow in the halls of the Pentagon and Congress.
Critics have condemned the move, accusing Trump of abandoning America’s erstwhile Kurdish allies in Eastern Syria (where the bulk of American forces have been stationed). Others are quietly lamenting losing access to the oil and gas fields around the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor. Supporters of the move have criticized the U.S. presence in Syria as a “forever war” with no end in sight and no way to disentangle the United States, and lauded Trump’s decision to draw down American forces, however difficult conditions on the ground may be for such a move.
America’s Decision to Pull Out of Syria Is All About Iran
What no one seems to understand is that, regardless of one’s opinion on the U.S. role in Syria—and indeed, there is an abundance of evidence to suggest that the military’s continued presence in Syria is legally dubious—the Trump administration is drawing down U.S. troops from the country in order to reduce the amount of targets for Iran’s ballistic missiles.
As the hostilities with Iran increase, with bunker-busting bombs being moved to Israel by the United States and unconfirmed reporting coming out of the region that Israel is readying to strike Iran without the blessing or assistance of the United States, the Trump administration understands that it will be U.S. forces stationed in the region who are targeted by any Iranian retaliation.
There are over 60,000 U.S. troops spread throughout the Middle East. If bombs begin to fall on Iranian nuclear weapons development facilities, it is certain that the Iranians will target any nearby Americans in response. And the Iranian ballistic missile threat reaches deep into Syria (and beyond). The Trump administration understands that Israel will not wait for any negotiations to occur between President Trump and his Iranian counterparts.
For Israel, Iran’s threat is existential and, ever since the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, Israel’s possession of a stable air corridor over Syria and into Iran, means that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) must act quickly to ensure they can reliably strike Iran before they lose that air corridor—and before Iran has a robust nuclear weapons arsenal.
The “America First” Reasoning Behind Trump’s Syria Decision
Trump understands that the Iranians could do vast amounts of damage to the American personnel and their equipment. With Israel appearing willing to go its own way, even if it means dragging the Americans into a fight with Iran, Trump must protect his people in the region.
Everyone trying to ascribe deeper meaning into these moves is missing the point. Trump does not want a major Mideast war on his watch, but the Israelis and key advisers around Trump do want to take down the Iranian nuclear weapons program.
And the removal of U.S. forces from Syria is yet another indicator that very soon, either the United States and Israel, or perhaps Israel alone, will attack Iran.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Michele Ursi.
