Defense analysts without access to classified information are roughly back where they started—without tangible evidence of what the NGAD design may include, and instead forced instead to rely upon common sense and intuition.
On March 21, the Air Force released computer rendered images of the F-47 Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter. The image release catalyzed a flurry of speculation about the NGAD’s design features—with much attention paid to the canards featured in the images, a surprise, given that canards raise an aircraft’s radar cross section (RCS) and reduce stealth performance.
But as Air & Space Force Magazine is reporting, Air Force and industry officials released the NGAD images as “mere placeholders” that “aren’t intended to accurately portray the aircraft.” Rather, the “idea is to keep adversaries guessing about the true nature of the NGAD design.”
Why the F-47 Might Have Canards
The NGAD images released on March 21 show the front portion of a futuristic aircraft, what was presumably the NGAD, The leading edges of the wings are shown, indicating an aggressive dihedral (upward slanting) angle. Ahead of the wings, catching most analysts by surprise, were fixed canards—a wing configuration featuring a small forewing.
“Considering the presence of canards, it would seem that agility may have remained a primary design driver for Boeing’s F-47,” The War Zone reported on March 24. “If this is indeed the case, and the renders are not a misdirection, it would explain other interesting aspects of the design while also pointing to broader decisions that have been made in secret for the [NGAD].”
This author noted on March 26, in reference to the NGAD disclosure, that “the benefit of canards is improved maneuverability and stability, especially at high angles of attack. But canards lead to higher observability—and hence less stealth,” adding that “the Americans have never produced a stealth fighter with canards” and “all assumptions thus far [regarding NGAD’s canards] are based on a whole lot of speculation.”
Is the Air Force Bluffing—or Double Bluffing?
If the statement to TWZ is accurate, the Air Force is saying that the NGAD images were indeed a misdirection—though that statement may in and of itself be a misdirection!
The NGAD-with-canards should be “taken with a large grain of salt,” an Air Force official said. “We aren’t giving anything away in those pictures. You’ll have to be patient.”
The official added that “maybe” the images resembled the actual NGAD. But other sources are confirming that the Boeing artists who produced the images “deliberately distorted some of the NGAD’s features, and the Air Force then further altered them.”
So defense analysts without access to classified information are roughly back where they started—without tangible evidence of what the NGAD design may include, and instead forced instead to rely upon common sense and intuition. And as far as common sense and intuition are concerned, the inclusion of canards on what is presumably an ultra-stealthy, sixth-generation fighter, seems unlikely. As The War Zone noted, for an aircraft “optimized for low observability (stealth), range, payload, and speed” and “not maneuverability” the inclusion of canards would be a “surprise.”
Yet, NGAD design disclosures likely won’t be forthcoming any time in the near future. Analysts and pundits will be left to speculate. So will America’s adversaries.
About the Author: Harrison Kass
Harrison Kass is a senior defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
Image: Shutterstock / Radoslaw Maciejewski.
