Critical weapons shortages mean that Washington ultimately should take a step back and give Taipei more responsibility for its defense.
On any question relating to Taiwan, easy answers rarely present themselves. For instance, low U.S. stockpiles of long-range anti-ship missiles (LRASMs) and Harpoon anti-ship missiles would obviously benefit China if it decides to invade Taiwan. However, drastically increasing these inventories could escalate the risks of war.
The Department of Defense (DOD) previously neglected LRASM procurement and Harpoon sales to Taiwan to the point where these weapons will not reach critical capacity by the “Davidson window.” This timeframe, named after former U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) commander Admiral Phillip Davidson, is the DOD’s estimate of when China will be militarily capable of invading Taiwan. The window opens in 2027.
The U.S. Air Force did not request funding for any LRASMs in the President’s Budget for FY2020 and FY2022. Only five LRASMs were requested for FY2021. While the U.S. Navy averaged seventy-one LRASM requests from FY2020 to FY2025, this number could not compensate for the Air Force’s abysmally low request rates.
Due to their lack of procurement, the Air Force and the Navy are only predicted to have 629 LRASMs combined in 2027. Meanwhile, RAND estimates that the military needs 1,200 LRASMs to defend Taiwan during a sixty-five-day conflict with China.
Harpoon sales to Taiwan are also behind schedule. Taiwan is still waiting on a U.S. foreign military sale (FMS) made in 2020 of 400 Harpoon missiles and 100 launchers. It took two and a half years from the 2020 FMS for the Navy to award manufacturing contracts to Boeing.
As a result, Taiwan is only expected to receive a third of the 2020 order by the end of 2026. However, Taiwan might not receive any missiles by that date because of other U.S. global priorities. Harpoons were recently diverted to Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia is next in line to receive them.
A 2023 wargame published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows that Taiwan can still retain its autonomy in a 2026 conflict with China. However, the costs would be devastating. In the wargame, thousands of American, Taiwanese, and Japanese servicemembers died in the first three weeks of staving off the Chinese invasion. The daily rate of American military deaths in Taiwan was nearly five times that of the Vietnam War’s peak.
LRASM and Harpoon deficiencies would enable those losses. All U.S. LRASMs were expended by the end of the conflict’s first three days. In the absence of LRASMs, the Air Force endured instances of aborted missions and attrition. Similarly, without the 2020 Harpoon FMS, Taiwan’s prospects for wartime success suffered greatly.
Trying to make up for these deficiencies could prove disastrous. Bulk buying anti-ship missiles now could trigger an arms race where China rushes to build more missiles and warships. The latter outnumber those of the United States by fifteen. China has the largest navy in the world because of its shipbuilding advantage. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is currently demonstrating its naval might by building Type 076, the world’s largest amphibious assault ship. Type 076, which can carry a catapult launching system and dozens of aircraft, could be a game-changer in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Similarly, China already perceives U.S. arms packages to Taiwan as a betrayal of the “one China” policy and a threat to its territorial rights. Filling more orders of Harpoons for Taiwan could trigger belligerent PLA activity near Taiwan in addition to increased warship production.
Washington ultimately needs to take a step back and give Taipei more responsibility for its defense. Taiwan has shown tremendous potential in anti-ship missile production. Taiwan’s main arms manufacturer recently produced 131 Hsiung Feng anti-ship missiles in only two years. Taiwan also saves billions of dollars when it opts for domestic missiles instead of American-made ones.
In the meantime, Washington should stop asserting that the United States will defend Taiwan if China attacks. The United States and Taiwan do not even have the anti-ship missiles needed to deliver a swift victory. If China invades Taiwan without a U.S. follow-through on its defense commitment, then the United States could lose its credibility on the global stage.
The time to dramatically ramp up the procurement of LRASMs and Harpoons has passed. DOD is already going to miss the Davidson window. Now, Washington must tone down its warmongering rhetoric and put pressure on Taipei to defend itself.
Kamsi Obiorah is a former Marcellus Policy Fellow at the John Quincy Adams Society.
Image: Rawpixel.com / Shutterstock.com.
