Thus far in the conflict, the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Russian Navy have had vastly different experiences.
The Russian ground forces are taking a battering in Ukraine, with casualties nearing the 1 million mark. But although the Russian Aerospace Forces and Russian Navy have also taken substantial losses, they have rebuilt at paces approximating—or even exceeding—their losses thus far.
Russia’s Air Force: Unscathed, but Largely Ineffective
Compared to the heavy losses suffered on the ground, “Russia has sustained only minor losses in Ukraine” in air and maritime capabilities, U.S. Army General Christopher Cavoli, the top military commander in Europe, told Congress last week.
Today, the Russian Aerospace Forces are thought to have a fleet of over 1,100 combat-capable aircraft. Cavoli noted that the Russian aircraft fleet includes Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers, as well as “Su-57 stealth fighters.” Notably, though the EUCOM boss used the term “stealth fighters” to describe the Su-57 Felon aircraft, it is doubtful whether the fighter jet shares similar low observability attributes as true stealth fighter jets like the U.S. F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II.
Unable to establish air superiority over the battlefield, the Russian Aerospace Forces have been relegated to a secondary role in Ukraine. Russian fighter jets and strategic bombers equipped with long-range munitions regularly attack Ukrainian military targets and urban centers—but in order to avoid Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses, they launch the munitions from a distance, decreasing their accuracy and effectiveness. In many ways, Russian pilots are thus acting as airborne artillery.
The reasons behind Moscow’s failure to establish air superiority—a key goal for any modern military—are poor tactics, equipment shortcomings, and Western anti-aircraft systems in Ukrainian service.
Ukraine Has Mauled Russia’s Black Sea Fleet
Meanwhile, the Russian Navy as a whole largely retains its capabilities—but has suffered heavy losses in the fighting.
“Aside from some losses in its Black Sea Fleet, the Russian Navy remains intact, with over 60 submarines and 42 surface vessels capable of launching nuclear-tipped Kalibr cruise missiles,” the EUCOM boss stated.
Interestingly, out of the three main services, the Russian Navy has suffered the highest per capita losses. Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet—the only one of its major fleets bordering Ukraine, and thus able to take part in the conflict—has lost approximately 24 surface combatants, submarines, support vessels, and small craft sunk or destroyed. Losses include the Moskva guided-missile cruiser, the flagship of the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet, which was sunk only a few weeks into the conflict. Notably, although Russia’s fleets in the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Pacific remain at full strength, the Kremlin cannot use them to reinforce the Black Sea, as Turkey—which controls the mouth of the sea—has forbidden Russian military vessels from entering for this purpose.
Russia’s casualties are all the more remarkable considering that Ukraine does not really have a major naval force. Instead, Kyiv has been adroitly using anti-ship missiles and unmanned maritime systems to target and strike Russian vessels in the Black Sea.
However, the Ukrainians have not limited their strikes to warships and support vessels. The Ukrainian military has also regularly targeted Russian naval bases and logistical centers in Crimea and southern Russia. In one strike, it even targeted the headquarters of the Russian Navy in Sevastopol, the capital of Crimea. Despite a lack of a significant naval force, the Ukrainian military has been able to confidently dispute control of the seas.
Thus far in the conflict, the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Russian Navy have had vastly different experiences. The former has lost aircraft but is still very much in the fight. The latter, on the other hand, has suffered humiliating losses—and is unable to control the Black Sea and effectively support ground operations.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Shutterstock / NickolayV.
