“The decrease in the recorded rate of casualties, whilst remaining high, likely reflects a decrease in the tempo of Russian operations and assaults,” speculated the British Ministry of Defence.
The new year did not enter well for the average Russian soldier fighting in Ukraine. In just over two months, Russian forces have lost approximately 100,000 troops in the fighting, according to Western reports.
If Russian casualties continue at this rate, they will exceed by a large margin the record-high losses of more than 400,000 men killed and wounded that Moscow suffered in 2024.
Russia’s Horrific Casualty Rate
“Russia has likely sustained approximately 90,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the Russia-Ukraine conflict so far in 2025. Since invading Ukraine, Russia has likely sustained approximately 875,000 casualties in total,” the British Ministry of Defence assessed in a recent intelligence estimate on the operational status of the conflict.
Such losses are a necessary byproduct of the Kremlin’s attritional strategy in Ukraine. In exchange for its casualties, Russian commanders are capturing territory across several parts of the line of contact.
“The average daily Russian casualties during February 2025 was 1,255 according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting,” the British Ministry of Defence added—although it noted that this average was the lowest since August 2024.
Indeed, there is a clear drop in the average daily losses of the Russian forces from previous months. Just a few weeks ago, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces were losing as many as 1,500 men on a daily basis. And this drop in average daily losses corresponds with an overall drop in casualties.
“The total reported Russian casualties in February 2025 was 35,140, a decrease of around 13,000 from January’s total, which was the second highest monthly total of the conflict,” the British Ministry of Defence added.
The decrease continues thus far in March. According to the data provided by the Ukrainian armed forces, in ten days of fighting this month, the Russian forces have lost approximately 11,750 men killed or wounded. That amounts to an average daily loss of around 1,170 troops.
“The decrease in the recorded rate of casualties, whilst remaining high, likely reflects a decrease in the tempo of Russian operations and assaults,” the British Ministry of Defence stated.
One explanation for the decrease in casualties is the ongoing peace talks about ending the conflict. The new U.S. administration has signaled with words and actions that it wishes to end the war. The Kremlin very likely sees an opportunity here and is somewhat dialing back its assaults so as not to give Kyiv’s arguments against peace with Russian President Vladimir Putin more credence.
Another explanation could be a decrease in the ability of the Ukrainian military to kill and wound Russian troops, especially after the freezing of security aid from the United States. However, the Ukrainian military still has plenty of U.S. munitions, as Washington frontloaded deliveries under the Biden administration to avoid exactly such a situation—and NATO’s European members are increasing their support.
Regardless of the reason for the drop, the Russian forces will almost certainly continue to suffer heavy losses in the next weeks, absent a peace deal or a broader change in the Kremlin’s strategy.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Shutterstock / Sergey Nikonov.
