A poll has found that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party would win the most seats in parliament if the election were held today, as the party continues to gain ground against the Westminster establishment.
A survey of over 16,000 people from the More in Common think-tank has suggested a “dramatic transformation of the political landscape” has occurred since the general election last July that saw the left-wing Labour Party sweep to power after the collapse in support for the so-called Conservative Party over failures on the economy and migration.
The MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) poll, which uses models to predict the outcomes in the 650 constituencies to determine the potential makeup of the next parliament, showed that Nigel Farage-led Reform UK is on pace to win the election with 180 seats. This would represent a staggering 175-seat increase over the election last year.
While the Labour and Conservative parties were tied with Reform in terms of overall support, with all three parties standing at 24 per cent, the two establishment parties came behind the upstart populist party in terms of parliamentary seats, with both projected to be on course to win 165 seats. This would represent a 246-seat decline for the governing Labour Party and a 44-seat increase for the Tories.
Although Reform’s positions are broadly on the right of the political spectrum, it has consciously targeted traditionally Labour-run areas of the country known as the “Red Wall”. Such areas broadly supported the Brexit referendum and are dominated by the working class, who Reform argues have been left behind by the left-wing party as it has become more progressive and focused on the concerns of urban elites.
Demonstrating the fruits of Reform’s strategy, the survey found that 153 of their projected seats would be taken from constituencies currently controlled by Labour. Furthermore, out of the ten cabinet ministers projected to lose their seats, nine would fall to Reform candidates, the MRP found.
More in Common noted that the survey reflected a “historically fragmented electorate” as their projections would mean that no party would receive an overall majority in the House of Commons.
However, the trendline appears to be on the side of Reform, which won only five seats last year with just over 14 per cent of the vote.
Over the past few months, Reform has topped multiple nationwide polls. However, the survey from More in Common represents the first major survey to suggest that the Farage party would win the most seats in the Commons.
It will likely serve as a boost for the party as it heads into the local council elections, which will represent the first significant test for Reform since Farage was elected to parliament.
Luke Tryl, UK Director at More in Common, admitted that predicting the outcome of an election four years out is a “fool’s errand” but noted that “Nigel Farage’s Reform UK emerges as the biggest winners of this Parliament so far”.
“They could well become the largest party in Parliament, something almost unthinkable a year ago. Though the party remains a long way from being able to secure a majority, it is clear Reform’s momentum is real and the question is whether their new level of support represents the start of a path to Government or a ceiling that Farage’s polarising brand finds hard to overcome,” Tryl said.
“Labour, meanwhile, having secured a historic victory, now find themselves on the wrong side of a disillusioned electorate frustrated at the slow pace of change and some of the Government’s early missteps,” he added.
