Until Russia can fix its fifth-generation Su-57 series, providing timeframe estimates for anything further is a moot point.
As news surrounding the U.S. Air Force’s upcoming Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program has made headlines in recent days, it is important to remember Russia and China are both plugging away at their own futuristic fighter plans. The F-47 will undoubtedly be the platform to counter as more and more emerging technologies are planned to be incorporated in the jet. Since Moscow’s existing Su-57 fifth-generation aircraft is struggling to reach export targets, it may not be plausible for Russian engineers to field a homegrown sixth-generation successor in the near future. According to state-run news outlet TASS, Russia hopes to introduce a next-generation combat aircraft prototype by 2050. However, this timeline could surely keep moving as Moscow is known for military-related delays.
“Currently, we are thinking about the concept of a sixth-generation aircraft, conducting search research, exchanging views with military specialists,” Evgeny Fedosov, scientific director of the State Research Institute of Aviation Systems, revealed in a column for TASS news agency. “Such an aircraft should appear sometime by 2050, but already now it is necessary to understand what the armed conflicts of the future will be like.” Analysts and industry experts alike are rightfully skeptical of these remarks, considering Moscow’s Su-57-related issues and ongoing Ukraine invasion.
Introducing the Su-57
The concept behind Russia’s Su-57 fighter platform was derived during the Soviet era. At the later stages of the Cold War when the arms race between the USSR and Washington was heating up, Soviet engineers were tasked with creating a multifunctional jet series that could ultimately replace the Su-27 and MiG-29 platforms. Designated by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as the “Felon,” the Su-57 was designed with superior capabilities than its predecessors. However, some analysts have argued that the Felon could be a paper tiger.
At a quick glance, the Su-57 appears to be comparable to other fifth-generation fighter jets in service today, including the American-made F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II. Russian media asserts that the Felon features supermaneuvrability, hefty internal payloads for ordnance, and 3D thrust vectoring controls (a capability not even present on China’s fifth-gen Chengdu J-20 fighter series). However, the “stealth” incorporated in the Russian platform is subpar at best. The jet’s radar cross-section is noticeably larger than its American counterparts, meaning the jet is more easily detectable via radar and other aircraft. When it comes to speed, the Su-57 is technically faster than the Lightning II with a top range of Mach 2.0 (times the speed of sound). However, the platform was designed to be powered by the Izdeliye 30 engine. Since many of the existing Su-57s fly with an older engine type, the jets’ intended speed may not be realized in reality.
Until Russia can work out some of the issues surrounding its fifth-generation Su-57 series, providing timeframe estimates for anything further is a moot point.
About the Author: Maya Carlin
Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin. Carlin has over 1,000 articles published over the last several years on various defense issues.
Image: Kosorukov Dmitry / Shutterstock.com
