In the wake of Pope Francis’ passing on Easter Monday, the Catholic Church will begin the process of selecting the next Bishop of Rome, thereby setting the future course of the Church and its 1.3 billion followers.
Within 15 to 20 days of the death of the Pope, a conclave of the College of Cardinals will be convened within the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican, where they will hold a secret ballot vote to elect the next Pontifex Maximus of the Church.
During his 12 years at the helm of the Church, Pope Francis placed a heavy focus on social justice issues, such as tolerance towards the so-called LGBTQ community, climate change, and mass migration, in what some regarded as a split from Church doctrine.
Francis also had a significant impact on the makeup of the College of Cardinals, having selected approximately 80 per cent of the cardinals who will be eligible to vote for the next Pope.
Rather than selecting from large archdioceses such as those in cities like Los Angeles and Milan, Pope Francis focused on selecting cardinals from the periphery of the church, particularly in Africa and Asia, with a focus on those with a “pastoral” background.
The extent of the lasting impact of such moves will be put to the test in the conclave, where cardinals will determine whether to select a successor in line with the progressive vision of Pope Francis or whether to return to a more conservative perspective, represented by some of the leading contenders to become his replacement.
Any baptized Roman Catholic male is eligible to be pope, but since 1378, only cardinals have been selected. A cardinal who is considered a possible candidate to be pope is often referred to in the media as “papabile” or able to be pope (or in the plural form, these cardinals are called the “papabili”). Who these contenders may be is, of course, entirely speculative because the conclave process is not a public contest.
A popular saying in Rome goes, “He who enters the conclave as pope leaves as a cardinal,” indicating that the papal selection is not merely a popularity contest, but rather one guided by Divine Providence.
With that in mind, here is a look at some of the leading candidates:
Cardinal Luis Tagle, Philippines
VATICAN CITY, VATICAN – DECEMBER 08: Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle attends a Mass with newly appointed cardinals presided by Pope Francis at St. Peter’s Basilica on December 08, 2024 in Vatican City. (Photo by Franco Origlia/Getty Images)
Currently standing as one of the favourites among oddsmakers, 67-year-old Tagle would perhaps best represent a continuity papacy, having been described as the “Asian Pope Francis”. If elected, the Filipino Cardinal would become the first Pope chosen from Asia after Francis became the first Pope from South America.
Cardinal Tagle, who reportedly prefers to be referred to by his nickname of “Chito” rather than by his clerical title, has argued against the Church taking a “judgmental” stance and has been critical of those who have used “harsh” words about homosexuals or divorced people.
“The harsh words that were used in the past to refer to gays and divorced and separated people, the unwed mothers etc, in the past they were quite severe,” he said in 2015, adding: “Many people who belonged to those groups were branded and that led to their isolation from the wider society. ”
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Italy
The Vatican’s Cardinal Secretary of State Pietro Parolin attends a mass for Palm Sunday in St Peter’s Square in the Vatican on April 13, 2025. (Photo by Tiziana FABI / AFP) (Photo by TIZIANA FABI/AFP via Getty Images)
Cardinal Parolin, 70, also had close ties to Francis, having served as his Secretary of State since 2013. He has international experience, having spent three decades in the Holy See diplomatic service. Parolin has expressed a conservative perspective on some social issues, including having described the passage of a gay marriage law in traditionally Catholic Ireland as a “defeat for humanity”.
However, he has come under criticism for backing a controversial deal with Communist China on episcopal appointments. Although the terms of the agreement were never made public, it is believed to be similar to an arrangement struck with the communist government of Vietnam, in which the Pope is given a list of acceptable Cardinal candidates by the CCP.
Last week, Cardinal Parolin met with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, during which the Vatican said there was an “exchange of opinions” on issues like “countries affected by war, political tensions and difficult humanitarian situations, with particular attention to migrants, refugees, and prisoners.” Pope Francis had previously been critical of the Trump administration’s efforts to combat illegal migration.
Péter Erdő, Hungary
VATICAN CITY, VATICAN – OCTOBER 07: Hungarian archbishop of Budapest Cardinal Peter Erdo leaves the Synod Hall at the end of a session of the Synod on the themes of family on October 7, 2014 in Vatican City. (Photo by Franco Origlia/Getty Images)
The 72-year-old Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest represents one of the more conservative potential candidates. A canon law scholar, Erdő has differed with Pope Francis on areas such as divorce, arguing that the Church cannot change its position towards people who divorce and remarry, saying that it is “impossible” for the Church to recognise such a union while the other divorced partner is still alive.
The Hungarian Cardinal also broke with Pope Francis on the issue of mass migration, arguing at the outset of the European Migrant Crisis in 2015 that for Western nations to adopt an open borders approach would be akin to permitting human trafficking.
He has also been critical of the media’s portrayal of the Catholic faith, saying in 2012 that it is often “full of lies, misinforming the public as to the content of our faith as well as to what makes up the reality of the church.”
Erdő’s prospects of becoming the next Pope may be bolstered by the strong relationships he forged in developing areas, particularly in Africa, where he held frequent meetings while serving as the president of the European bishops.
Robert Sarah, Guinea
Guinean cardinal Robert Sarah attends a prayer at the Cathedral of Our Lady of Victories in Dakar on December 4, 2023. (Photo by GUY PETERSON / AFP) (Photo by GUY PETERSON/AFP via Getty Images)
Another prominent conservative candidate, Cardinal Sarah, could become the first Pope to hail from Africa since the fifth century and the first to come from Sub-Saharan Africa. The 79-year-old has been one of the most outspoken cardinals in the Vatican on conservative issues, often offering contrary positions to those of Pope Francis.
For example, in 2019, Sarah argued that it was wrong to attempt to “use the word of God to promote migration”. He said that many illegal migrants who come to Western nations find themselves in conditions akin to “slavery”.
The cardinal has also been critical of globalist institutions such as the European Union, saying that Brussels “no longer protects the peoples within it. It protects the banks.”
“This contemporary desire to globalize the world, ridding it of nations with their distinctive characteristics is sheer madness,” Sarah declared.
The African cardinal has also claimed that far-left Western gender ideologies and the Islamist vision of groups like ISIS are “almost like two apocalyptic beasts” that must be confronted today, while comparing them to murderous ideologies of the past.
“What Nazi-Fascism and Communism were in the 20th century, Western homosexual and abortion Ideologies and Islamic Fanaticism are today,” he said in 2015.
Peter Turkson, Ghana
VATICAN, VATICAN CITY, AUGUST 27: Ghanaian cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson arrives for the consistory celebrated by Pope Francis for the creation of new cardinals in St. Peterâs Basilica at the Vatican City, on August 27, 2022. (Photo by Riccardo De Luca/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Another potential first Sub-Saharan Pope, 76-year-old Cardinal Peter Turkson, would likely serve as a more liberal Pontiff than Cardinal Sarah, championing such issues as climate change and poverty.
Formerly the president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, Turkson recently sparked controversy in his native Ghana after coming out against legislation to criminalise homosexuality, for which he was rebuked by the country’s national bishops’ conference.
While Turkson said that he was against criminalising homosexuality, he did say that same sex relationships are “objectively sinful” in the eyes of the Church.
Turkson was at the forefront of Pope Francis’ climate agenda, and was credited with playing a key role in drafting the Laudato Si encyclical, which proclaimed that human beings are the main drivers of the supposed climate crisis and that there is a moral responsibility to enact a green agenda.
Matteo Zuppi, Italy
BOLOGNA, ITALY – DECEMBER 24: Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi, Archbishop of Bologna and President of the Italian Bishops’ Conference, celebrates Christmas Eve Mass in the hall of the train station on December 24, 2024 in Bologna, Italy. (Photo by Massimiliano Donati/Getty Images)
The 69-year-old Zuppi is also widely regarded as a member of the progressive wing of the Church and would likely represent a continuity papacy in line with the legacy of Pope Francis.
Having previously been an advocate of building “bridges” between the Catholic Church and the LGBT community, Zuppi faced criticism after it was alleged that he was aware that clergy at his Archdiocese of Bologna were planning to bless a same sex union in 2022.
In 2023, Pope Francis appointed Cardinal Zuppi as his special envoy to carry out peace missions in Ukraine and Russia, and he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as then-President Joe Biden of the United States.
President Donald Trump announced he and first lady Melania Trump will attend Pope Francis’s funeral in Rome.
