The reality is that the ELRSA system is unlikely to come into being before Russia concludes its bloody business in Ukraine.
Europe, a continent that has prized itself since the end of the Cold War as a postmodern utopia where the welfare state far outstripped the warfare state, now finds itself on the frontlines of one of this century’s most violent conflicts. The Ukraine War, initiated by Russia in February 2022, has pitted a U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in a brutal proxy war with the Russian Federation over control of Ukraine. Despite having a combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or around $19 trillion, Europe has failed to produce the weapons needed to counter what they view as an existential threat from a resurgent Russia in Europe.
Indeed, since the earliest battles of the Ukraine War, it was obvious that long-range missiles were an essential weapon in this conflict.
Europe is Finally Getting More Serious About Its Defense
Yet throughout the conflict, the Europeans failed to respond adequately. Instead, the collective European NATO members continued to rely on the weapons provided to them by the United States. Last summer, however, the Europeans began addressing this critical gap in European capabilities. Indeed, now that the recently-elected Trump administration is clearly intent on removing the United States from the European theater of war altogether, the Europeans are likely shifting these plans into overdrive.
So, the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELRSA) is one of only a handful of serious European attempts to rearm themselves with indigenous capacities. In fact, now that it appears the Trump administration is bailing on the Ukraine War, leaving Europe to sort it out, the Europeans are moving upwards of 150 billion euros to initiate funding of a coterie of advanced, European-built weapon systems.
Thus, the ELRSA is likely going to get a big infusion of support.
All About Europe’s ELRSA Missile Project
The ELRSA project was launched in June 2024 by Germany, France, and Poland, and later joined by Italy, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and the Netherlands. These countries are forming the nucleus of this critical indigenous missile system. Of course, there will be complications, as Europe generally struggles with its defense industrial base. NATO’s struggles with production are well-known; new NATO chief Mark Rutte is on the record complaining that Russia can produce in three months what it takes a year for NATO to produce, despite the vast difference in the two sides’ economic strength.
ELRSA came about when the Europeans realized they were seriously lacking in long-range strike capabilities after decades of cuts following the end of the Cold War. Europe hopes that this new weapon will strike targets over 600 miles away with pinpoint accuracy.
The hope among Europe’s leaders is that the system will deter Russia from further aggression, invigorate the continent’s stagnant industrial base, and enhance NATO’s burden-sharing—as well as to create a backstop for the time when the United States is no longer a dependable security guarantor.
Europe’s Defense Industry Cannot Produce at Scale
It is somewhat shocking that, as the Ukraine War enters its fourth year, Europe’s defense sector has not scaled their production lines for existing missiles to meet wartime demand. Building the ELRSA will require ramping up manufacturing in Europe fast. Beyond long-range fires, the Ukraine War has proven that quantity is key.
For example, since the start of the war, Russia has fired thousands of missiles into Ukraine. Europe’s missile arsenal is much smaller than Russia’s. Now that the Americans are pulling their material support back from Ukraine and NATO, the Europeans are left wondering not only if they can quickly build a system like the ELRSA, but also scale it up to mass production quickly enough to deter the Kremlin.
For Europe, the bottom line is that the Russian threat is now. For all the talk about increasing defense spending across Europe to enhance Europe’s capacity, the reality is that the ELRSA system is unlikely to come into being before Russia concludes its bloody business in Ukraine. Germany is already looking to purchase Tomahawk cruise missiles from the Americans as a stopgap until the ELRSA can be stood up.
But if the Europeans truly want to divorce themselves from the Americans and if they really want to acquire long-range strike capabilities in the near-term, then Europe might also look at purchasing long-range missile systems from countries outside of their traditional partners—such as Turkey, India (the Agni-V), or even China—to get them through this crucible until they can stand up this ELRSA system.
One thing is clear, though: regardless of what they say, Europe will never remilitarize in any meaningful way anytime soon. It is simply impossible to create a defense-industrial base from scratch in a year, no matter how much money Brussels devotes to it. Arming the continent is a question of industrial capacity, political will—and, most importantly, time.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
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