If the Russian forces continue to take losses at the same rate, Moscow will have lost approximately 450,000 men by the end of the year. For comparison, the Russian military lost around 420,000 men in 2024.
The Russian forces have taken almost 150,000 casualties in Ukraine in less than four months of combat in 2025, according to Western estimates—putting 2025 on track to be the deadliest year of the war so far, even as the fighting has slowed in some areas and Moscow and Kyiv have initiated peace talks.
Russia continues to lose men at extremely high rates more than three years into the conflict.
Russia Is Losing More Men This Year than Ever Before
“Russia has likely sustained approximately 138,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the Russia-Ukraine conflict so far in 2025,” the British Ministry of Defence assessed in its latest intelligence estimate of the conflict.
If the Russian forces continue to take losses at the same rate, Moscow will have lost approximately 450,000 men by the end of the year. For comparison, the Russian military lost around 420,000 men in 2024.
Data shared by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence indicates that the Russian forces averaged approximately 1,300 casualties killed and wounded in March. Although the average slightly increased compared to February (daily average of 1,250 losses), it is still below the daily casualty rates of the final months of 2024. During Russia’s last large-scale offensive along the line of contact from November to December 2024, the daily average Russian losses touched 1,600 per day—roughly two U.S. Army battalions every single day.
Though Russia has condemned Ukraine’s numbers as over-inflated and inaccurate, Western sources have largely corroborated its estimates. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv releases data on its own casualties.
The trend of increased casualties has persisted into April.
“The rise in casualty rates has continued into early April 2025, and is highly likely reflective of increased Russian attacks along the frontline,” the British Ministry of Defence added.
Two Reasons for Russia’s Increasing Battlefield Losses
The two main reasons behind the lower Russian losses earlier in the year were the onset of diplomacy—and increasing war fatigue. At some point earlier in the year, there appeared to be real momentum toward a peace settlement between the two combatants, and Russia’s leadership likely scaled back its assaults in order not to upset the delicate diplomatic balance that seemed to favor it. With peace talks stalled, and the United States now signaling that its support for Ukraine will not end during negotiations, the Kremlin has resumed the war in earnest.
“Russian forces are likely attempting to rebuild frontline momentum following a period of lower attacks in the opening months of the year. Despite a relatively static frontline, reported Russian casualties to remain significantly higher in 2025 so far than compared to spring 2024 when recorded daily Russian casualty rates were consistently below 1,000,” the British Ministry of Defence added in its intelligence estimate.
“Since invading Ukraine, Russia has likely sustained more than 920,000 total casualties,” the British Ministry of Defence concluded.
In a recent statement to Congress, the most senior U.S. military officer in Europe provided a slightly lower figure—estimating Russian losses at approximately 790,000 casualties. However, this smaller number may have excluded certain categories of troops, such as militiamen from the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” and mercenaries fighting for Russia independently of the Armed Forces.
Regardless of which number is more accurate, it is indisputable that the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces are taking heavy losses in the fighting. However, despite the heavy losses, the Russian military continues to grow and currently has more troops fighting against Ukraine than at any other point during the three-year conflict.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Shutterstock / fotoandy.
