Although Ukraine is on the defensive, its military situation is likely not so bad that it would accept degrading terms for peace.
Peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia continue with the help of the United States. By all accounts, both sides have suffered heavily in the fighting, and the Ukrainians, with a comparatively smaller economy and lesser pool of manpower to draw from, earnestly want peace.
But would they be willing to accept an end to the three-year conflict—which has ravaged their land, people, and economy—on humiliating terms?
Trump Wants Ukraine—but Not Russia—to Make Concessions
According to reports, the United States presented Ukraine with a proposal to end the conflict. Among the points contained within the proposal, the American negotiators suggested that Kyiv formally recognize Crimea as Russian territory, as well as conceding Russian-occupied territory in southern and eastern Ukraine. Ukraine would also be barred from joining NATO. However, Kyiv would be allowed to maintain its military at current levels—a major deterrent to Russia, which has suffered extraordinary losses at the hands of Ukraine’s defenders over the last three years.
The White House has not disclosed any official recommendations about the territorial concessions Ukraine would have to make.
“The reported US proposal suggests that the Trump administration is seeking to simultaneously achieve a full ceasefire in Ukraine, conclude a peace settlement to end the war, and develop US-Russian economic relations—a sharp contrast to the timeline of events that the administration has called for in recent weeks,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate on the Ukraine conflict.
It would come as a great surprise if Ukraine accepted these conditions. The proposed deal seems to favor Russia; essentially, it would allow the Kremlin to keep almost all of the territory that its military currently occupies, but would not provide Kyiv with any meaningful guarantees that Moscow would not renew its aggression in the future.
Although Ukraine is on the defensive, its military situation is likely not so bad that it would accept such terms—meaning that the war will continue until the United States proposes better terms, or unless Ukraine’s battlefield position degrades badly.
How Ukraine Lost the Crimean Peninsula
Conceding the Crimean Peninsula to Russia would also be a major concession for Ukraine—which has steadfastly insisted that the peninsula rightfully belongs to Ukraine, even though Russia has occupied it for more than a decade.
In early 2014, in the aftermath of the Euromaidan revolution ousting pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych from power, the Russian army launched a covert invasion of the peninsula. Russian special operations forces and Wagner Group paramilitary mercenaries—the so-called “little green men”—entered Crimea and took control of strategic points, and regular Russian troops soon followed. In the weeks following the invasion, Russia staged a “referendum” in which 97 percent of the peninsula’s residents allegedly supported Russian annexation.
Historians sometimes point to the first clashes between the invading troops and Crimea’s Ukrainian defenders as the first blood in the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia.
In the current large-scale fighting, the Russian military has been using Crimea as a base to support offensive operations in the south and southeastern part of Ukraine. Moscow also now has a land bridge that connects Russia with Crimea after capturing the Ukrainian coast adjacent to the Sea of Azov. Establishing this land bridge was one of the main objectives of the Russian military going into the large-scale invasion.
Zelensky and the Ukrainian government have repeatedly stated their intention to liberate Crimea and return the province to Ukraine. The peninsula commands a strategic position in the Black Sea, and whoever controls it has the upper hand in the region.
The Ukrainian military tried to position itself for the eventual assault against Crimea in the summer of 2023. Kyiv launched a large-scale counteroffensive in southern Ukraine with the goal of sweeping the Russian forces in the region, severing the land bridge with Crimea, and establishing a foothold on the peninsula. The Ukrainian offensive failed. Miles upon miles of Russian defensive works, and millions of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, halted the Ukrainian mechanized brigades. Since then, the Ukrainian forces have not been in a position to challenge Russia’s occupation of Crimea.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Shutterstock / Oleh Slepchenko.
