Why agree to a deal when Trump may simply abandon Ukraine?
Tensions are mounting over peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Ever since he met with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office in February, President Donald Trump has made it clear that he views him as an obstacle to a settlement. In April, Trump blamed Zelenskyy for starting the war. Now, as peace negotiations are taking place in London (which American officials canceled plans to attend), Trump is lashing into Zelenskyy over his refusal to recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied Ukrainian territory and demand for a full ceasefire.
Who’s bluffing whom? Ukraine is stiffening its stance. No mineral deal has been signed, though Ukraine has agreed to begin work on a free trade area with America. On Wednesday, Zelenskyy declared, “We in Ukraine insist on an immediate, full, and unconditional ceasefire. We are also ready for an immediate ceasefire at least for civilian targets and have already stated this. This should be a shared first priority with all partners — saving lives.”
Trump was indignant. “He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We are very close to a Deal, but the man with ‘no cards to play’ should now, finally, GET IT DONE.” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says that Trump is “frustrated” and “his patience is running very thin.” No doubt. Trump, who has the patience of a toddler, promised on the campaign trail that he could deliver peace in our time within twenty-four hours. Now, it’s turned into months.
Trump’s proposal gives Russia pretty much what it’s been asking for—no Ukrainian membership in NATO, full sanctions relief, legal recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and control over the land it’s currently occupying in eastern Ukraine. The problem for Putin, if it’s a problem, is that he has little incentive to agree to any deal. For now, Russian forces continue to advance in Ukraine and the spat between Kyiv and Washington plays to Moscow’s advantage. Vice President J.D. Vance says that the administration is prepared to “walk away.” Why agree to a deal when Trump may simply abandon Ukraine?
The rub for Trump has been that his threats toward the NATO allies have been too successful for his own designs. Trump, you could even say, overperformed by terrifying the Europeans into action. Germany, France, and Great Britain are all ramping up their defense spending and cooperation. Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has announced an additional trillion euros in spending on defense and infrastructure. What’s more, they show no sign of attenuating their support for Ukraine. Instead, they are upping it. Zelenskyy may be banking that he can, in a sense, go it alone, or at least without American support as long as Europe stands by him. In this regard, Trump has sabotaged his own negotiating leverage with Ukraine by badgering the Europeans to step up their assistance. It seems doubtful that he believed that they would heed his admonitions. According to the Atlantic Council’s Melinda Haring, “All eyes are on Europe. Can Europe provide enough kit and security guarantees to keep Ukraine in the fight until the end of 2025? Only time will tell.”
The blunt fact is that American influence around the globe is eroding. Trump may believe that he holds the cards, but Europe, Russia, and China likely see it differently. Ukraine may simply be the first instance in which the Trump administration is unable to achieve the goals that it set for itself.
About the author: Jacob Heilbrunn
Jacob Heilbrunn is editor of The National Interest and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He has written on both foreign and domestic issues for numerous publications, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Reuters, Washington Monthly, and The Weekly Standard. He has also written for German publications such as Cicero, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, and Der Tagesspiegel.
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