Today’s Air Force is relatively paltry compared to its heyday, with just 142 bombers and just over 2,000 fighter aircraft. And the average USAF bomber is around fifty years old, while the average fighter pilot is around thirty years old.
Heather Penney, a former F-16 pilot and current Senior Resident Fellow at AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, argues that the U.S. Air Force urgently needs to address its pilot shortage in order to meet the demands of addressing a peer competitor.
“For more than a decade,” Penney wrote, “the Air Force has fallen short of its pilot goals by about 2,000—the number was about 1,850 pilots in 2024—and with aging combat aircraft inventories, more planned force structure divestments, and projected squadron closures complicating the problem, the service is now struggling to ensure its pilots have the experience needed to succeed in combat.”
Countering the problem, Penney argues, will require adding new pilots to the Air Force, incentivizing current pilots to remain with the force, and adding new aircraft.
Understanding the Air Force’s Pilot Shortage
During the Cold War, when the U.S. was prepared for conflict with the Soviet Union, the Air Force had 422 bombers and over 4,000 fighter aircraft. Today’s Air Force is relatively paltry, with just 142 bombers and just over 2,000 fighter aircraft.
In addition to the concerns relating to the limited size of the force structure, Penney argues, are concerns relating to the age of the force structure. The average USAF bomber is around fifty years old, while the average fighter pilot is around thirty years old.
“Age correlates with readiness, as planes need more maintenance as they get older, reducing their availability,” Penney wrote. But growing the aircraft fleet is only part of the problem. The Air Force will also need to grow the pilot corps—hardly a simple process: “It takes years to build an experienced combat pilot, and the Air Force may not have the time to produce, train, and season new replacement pilots at the pace of need.”
Pilot retention is a problem, too.
“Pilots increasingly voice their frustrations from serving as high-demand, low-density assets,” Penney wrote. “Their continual high operating tempo is driving more and more Air Force pilots to leave the service.” In many instances, pilots leave service to work for commercial airlines, where they can earn six-figure salaries and keep a relatively relaxed work schedule.
Three Ways to Fix the Air Force’s Recruitment Problem
Penney’s report is comprehensive and worth reading. For readers looking for a quicker synopsis, the report concludes with a list of recommendations. The first is to “grow the Active Component fighter forces to increase the quantity and rate at which it can absorb new pilots and maintain pilot combat readiness.” Penney argues that more aircraft would allow the Air Force to develop more experienced fighter pilots at a rate sufficient to mitigate the outflow of experienced pilots away from the service.
As an aside, this author would add that the Air Force should rethink its medical discharge process, which often disqualifies eager and capable pilots for non-substantial reasons.
Penney’s second recommendation is to grow the number of “Reserve Component” squadrons and increase the number of planes assigned to each one. The Reserve Component is a way to capture and retain experienced fighter pilots who are leaving Active Duty, offering the “least disruptive way to increase the number of experienced combat pilots in the Total Force.”
Lastly, Penney argues for the modernization of Active and Reserve components. The nut of the problem, and the heart of the solution, in Penney’s view, is to stop underfunding the Air Force. As Chief of Staff of the Air Force General David Allvin has said, “the nation needs more Air Force.”
About the Author: Harrison Kass
Harrison Kass is a senior defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
Image: Shutterstock / Wirestock Creators.
