Wisconsin’s Act 10 Has Been a Win for Students. But it Faces an Uncertain Future

Wisconsin’s Act 10 was one of the boldest Republican reforms of the early twenty-first century. Enacted in 2011, the law sharply limited the collective-bargaining rights of many public employees, including teachers. It also freed school districts from rigid union pay schedules, ended automatic paycheck deductions for union dues, and required unions to win an annual vote to continue representing workers.

It also sparked outrage from teachers and organized labor in a historically union-friendly state. Mass protests erupted, and opponents forced Governor Scott Walker into a recall election—which he won.

More than a decade later, the law remains controversial. A state court recently ruled that Act 10 violates the Wisconsin constitution’s equal-protection clause because of its exemption for public-safety workers, and the state’s supreme court—now controlled by a liberal majority—may well agree. A new working paper released through the National Bureau of Economic Research, however, suggests that Act 10 benefited students, saved taxpayer dollars, and ultimately proved popular with voters.

The study takes advantage of an interesting feature of the law: Act 10 didn’t invalidate existing collective-bargaining agreements, so those contracts expired at different times across school districts. This created a “natural experiment,” allowing researchers to compare outcomes in districts that implemented the law earlier with those that did so later.

The researchers found that as existing agreements expired, districts spent less overall on teacher compensation but allocated those dollars more strategically. Younger educators in their early to mid-twenties saw pay increases, and many districts adopted “flexible,” merit-based pay systems.

These new compensation models, which emphasized performance over seniority and academic credentials, appeared to improve teaching quality. The study found that Act 10 led to a more than one-tenth standard deviation increase in student test scores—a substantial gain for an education reform. The benefits were especially pronounced among lower-income students.

The law also had striking political effects. After its passage, teachers’ union membership and revenues declined sharply—and with them, union political activity. Teachers, and even the specific individuals who’d signed the recall petition, reduced their donations to Democrats. For petition-signers, the authors suggest “a shift in political attitudes towards the reform driven by the direct exposure to its real consequences.” Other explanations are possible as well—for instance, the law’s implementation may have demoralized its opponents. (Generally, political donors tend to reward winners with future contributions.)

The researchers also found that Act 10 benefited Scott Walker in his 2012 and 2014 elections. His vote shares rose modestly in places that implemented the law, especially those with a strong union presence or with a high number of people who directly benefited from the policy, including young teachers and parents of school-age kids. As the authors put it, “even politically risky reforms can generate electoral benefits under the right circumstances.”

One should always approach social science findings with a degree of skepticism. This study was especially complex, drawing on extensive data sets covering union agreements, test scores, political donations, vote totals, and more—each introducing potential for error. Moreover, the variation in Act 10’s implementation timing spanned only a handful of years across districts, and the differences weren’t entirely random; some districts, for instance, extended their contracts in anticipation of the law.

Nevertheless, the authors use careful methods to compare trends over time, and discuss how their findings fit into the conflicting broader literature on Act 10’s effects.

The law’s fate is now in the Wisconsin Supreme Court’s hands. This research suggests that Act 10 benefited students, at teachers’ unions expense—striking it down would presumably have the opposite effect.

Photo by: Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images