Trump should abandon the peace talks with Iran and instead focus on creating an alliance consisting of Israel and the Sunni Arab states.
A fleet of B-2 Spirit long-range nuclear-capable stealth bombers—around six, or more than one-third percent of the entire American B-2 fleet—has found itself repositioned in the Northern Indian Ocean archipelago of Diego Garcia. Meanwhile, two aircraft carriers are within striking range of the Middle East.
Thousands of U.S. troops have been moved into military bases throughout the region, too. At the same time, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) is gearing up to utilize its newfound air corridor linking Israel with Iran via Syrian and Iraqi airspace.
And, most importantly, President Donald Trump has vowed that Iran will never be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons—even as all evidence suggests that Iran has stockpiles of the necessary materials to create multiple nuclear weapons in relatively short order.
In other words, with all the assets forward-deployed, as both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are threatening Iran over their nuclear weapons development, and with Iran possibly weeks—or even days—away from acquiring nuclear weapons, we seem poised to strike suspected nuclear weapons facilities in Iran.
At the same time, though, something unanticipated is occurring. Trump has indicated his willingness to meet with the Iranian leadership with no preconditions in a last-ditch effort to find a peaceful solution to the problem.
Trump Envoy Steve Witkoff Is Talking to Iran
According to media reports, Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, is scheduled to meet with an Iranian delegation under the leadership of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in neutral Oman. The meeting is reportedly intended to discuss the logistics of an eventual meeting between Trump and Iran’s leadership.
The whole thing comes across as an astounding waste of time. Could Trump get a “deal” with the Islamic Republic of Iran—roughly along the lines of the 2015 nuclear agreement, in which Tehran voluntarily agrees to suspend or roll back progress towards nuclear capability in return for limited sanctions relief? Possibly.
Peace With Iran? Not Likely!
But a more likely explanation is that the “negotiation” gambit is an Iranian ruse to buy time to develop an arsenal of nuclear weapons—however small. In short, Tehran would just be using the negotiations to buy themselves time to surge forward with their nuclear weapons development.
Put simply, the makeup and disposition of Iran’s clerical regime does not allow for the possibility of real peace with the United States and its partners. Tehran has an ideological commitment to acquiring nuclear weapons, using them both as a shield against regime change-style attacks and a saber against its neighbors to compel them into comporting with Tehran’s preferences. No amount of meetings with Trump and his team, or negotiations around the edges, will fundamentally change this reality.
Iran’s regime has made resistance to the United States and Israel twin pillars of its ideological legitimacy. They will not drop these beliefs simply because Trump meets with them.
Of course, the alternative to these talks, as Trump has indicated, is a very dangerous one: another war, in one form or another, in the Middle East.
War With Iran Might Be Even Worse than Negotiations
To avoid war, it just might be that Trump is willing to accept the existence of a very small Iranian nuclear weapons capability, so long as it remains a relative secret. The problem, of course, is that such a secret could not remain secret for long. Iran has been thoroughly penetrated by Israel’s intelligence agencies. And even if Tehran refused to admit to owning nuclear weapons, as Israel does, the existence of an Iranian bomb—admitted or otherwise—would immediately trigger the Saudis to seek their own, as Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) openly told Fox News’ Bret Baier in an interview last year.
Moreover, if Trump really moves forward with his ill-advised talks with Iran, it may very well place Israel in a position where it will simply initiate an attack on the suspected nuclear weapons facilities in Iran, irrespective of what the Trump administration wants to do. Israel cannot countenance a nuclear-armed Iran. For Israeli leaders, it is a nightmare scenario.
Given that the very last thing America wants to see happen is Israel attacking Iran out of fear that the Americans are getting cold feet, the best thing to do is to abandon these talks with Iran. They are a dead end. Talks will not stop Iran from nuclearizing; Iran will never abandon nuclear weapons; and Iran’s regional enemies will never be able to live in peace with a nuclear-armed Iran for very long.
On the other hand, launching airstrikes on Iranian nuclear targets will likely drastically slow Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons down. But there would be a whole manner of unintended consequences, any of which could devolve into a great power war.
Is there any way out of this dilemma? One solution—though an uncertain one—would be for the Trump administration to set Iran aside and press for the finalization of the Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The Abraham Accords Could Lead to a Middle Eastern NATO
After Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations—marking the true end of Israel’s international isolation in the Middle East—the United States should midwife the birth of a NATO-like entity for the Middle East, consisting of Israel and the Sunni Arab states led by Saudi Arabia. This alliance would be able to contain, isolate, and deter Iran, in much the same way that America and its NATO allies addressed the Soviet challenge during the Cold War. The analogy is particularly apt considering the similarities between the Soviet communist system and the Iranian clerical one: both nations were led by zealots in service to a bankrupt ideology, fanatically opposed to the West and unresponsive to the needs of the masses. In time, the Iranian regime will find itself on the “ash heap of history,” just as the USSR did.
This was the original plan of Trump’s first term—the core thought behind the Abraham Accords to begin with. In his second term, however, tensions with Iran are at historic highs, and various voices—both within the United States and its regional allies—are pushing the president toward launching a war with Iran. None of this is good for the United States.
Trump should abandon the peace talks with Iran and instead focus on creating an alliance consisting of Israel and the Sunni Arab states. Nothing is gained by attacking Iran at this moment. Containment and deterrence are the only reliable way forward.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Joshua Sukoff.
