By employing protectionist measures now, before the next great war begins, America can shield its eviscerated manufacturing sector—and perhaps restore it to fighting shape.
The much-dreaded “Black Monday”—a day on which financial experts warned that the stock market would further collapse, pitching the United States into recession—appears to have passed without incident. Elites everywhere have spent much of the past week raging against President Donald Trump’s imposition of mass tariffs on goods coming from dozens of countries (as well as a handful of southwest Indian Ocean islands controlled by Australia, but exclusively populated by unrepentant penguins). Financial experts on cable television have warned of a total Great Depression-style economic collapse. Yet so far, at least, this has not happened.
To be clear, the markets are down—a “correction,” in the words of some of Trump’s defenders. And whatever one thinks of this correction, it was clearly in response to the president’s tariffs. But in the days since Friday, the markets have stabilized, and America is relatively Great Depression-free.
Given that President Donald Trump campaigned on the promise of making the economic situation in this country far better than it was over the last four years, it begs the question why the Trump administration would take such a risky move by supporting mass tariffs. After all, every economist understands that restricting trade will have negative economic consequences—at least in the short run.
Tariffs Are a National Security Priority
But, as Trump himself has hinted at, the tariffs are not really about the economy—though they may have positive economic consequences in the long run. Instead, they are about America’s precarious national security.
After all, as soon as Trump imposed his tariffs, China went for the jugular, banning America from purchasing seven essential rare earth minerals. Rare earths are key for the creation of most modern technology, and for the last decade, China has slowly taken over most of the global rare earth mineral market.
This move by Beijing is just another example—of many—about how dangerous it is for the United States to allow itself to be reliant on foreign countries, especially rivals like China, for key products such as rare earth minerals and pharmaceuticals. (Sadly, pharmaceuticals were among the many things exempted from the Trump administration tariffs which, while good for those of us in need of those products, it complicates the push for greater domestic self-sufficiency).
Some have countered that China would not have to place tariffs on rare earth minerals and other critical products if the Trump team had not initiated this trade war. That much is true. But anyone who follows international geopolitics closely understands how close the world is to another major conflict—one that would almost certainly feature the United States on one side and China on the other.
That being the case, “free trade” with China will do little to enhance U.S. national security. Indeed, it will undermine it. And the longer we wait to enforce greater self-sufficiency upon our economy, the more harm will come to the United States whenever that great power conflict erupts.
Remember When China Held US Supply Chains Hostage During COVID-19?
Just think back to the dark days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Remember how, once the shutdowns went into effect, there was a run on basic supplies? A shortage of toilet paper? Or how about the lack of personal protective equipment (PPE)?
That last one in particular was notable. As it turned out, China, a leader in manufacturing PPE materials, had been hoarding PPE supplies for months—even as it downplayed the danger of the pandemic to the rest of the world.
This lesson is instructive in how supply chains running through Beijing could endanger the United States in a future crisis. Consider just how many of America’s supply chains depend on countries that are hostile to the United States and its position as a global superpower.
In short, set aside the economic fear and loathing we are all experiencing with Trump’s trade war. Focus instead on the possibilities of returning even a fraction of the industrial might and production capacities that America spent the last 40 years frittering away.
The Ukraine War Has Also Harmed the United States
It’s not just the COVID-19 pandemic where American dependencies on foreign nations complicated its national security. The outbreak of war in Ukraine spiked food prices dramatically, as much of Ukraine’s agricultural production capacity was knocked out by the war—or cut off from the world via the Black Sea.
More shockingly is the fact that, according to the United States Department of Agriculture, “America isn’t a food superpower anymore.” Indeed, the USDA claimed that last year the United States “recorded[ed] its third consecutive annual trade deficit in agricultural for the first time in almost 70 years.”
How can this be, when North America is one of the most fertile lands in the world for the mass production of foodstuffs?
And despite having massive, untapped stores of natural gas and oil here in North America, the Biden administration was even importing Russian oil to supplement America’s immense energy demands. The profits Russia made off those sales, naturally, helped to fund their war effort.
Talk about self-inflicted wounds.
Replacing Productive Working-Class Communities with Fentanyl Addicts Is a Problem
And let’s not even get started on the way that “free trade” over the decades has gutted the American middle-and-working-class. Here, too, is a national security threat.
In communities throughout the American heartland, the factories that once produced the goods that made the twentieth century the “American Century” now sit idle and abandoned, the communities there have been left behind. These sizable communities, in turn, have become deserts for opportunity—and as opportunity has left, fentanyl and crime have found a home.
As for the implications of the tariffs, they are designed to restore some semblance of balance to America’s chronic trade deficits with multiple powers. More importantly, though, they are clearly meant to bring lost productive capabilities here.
In so doing, this will fortify the United States and make it harder to defeat in the next great power war, when the other great powers of the world will try to use every advantage they have to defeat the American military.
Thoughts on Tariffs as a Way to Win Wars
Perhaps it is too late for this plan to work. It should have been tried thirty years ago. At the very least, American leaders from Bill Clinton onward should have never abandoned America’s industrial capacity for the siren song of cheap foreign goods.
Undoing this mistake three decades later will be extremely costly. But to try to do so is better late than never—especially when the ability for the United States to win a great power conflict is at hand. Such a conflict would demand that America be the master of its own ability to produce and maintain its military and economy in a violently contested global environment.
Tariffs, therefore, are not economic suicide. They are more akin to the shields of the Starship Enterprise in Gene Roddenberry’s Star Trek. By employing protectionist measures now, before the next great war begins, America can shield its eviscerated manufacturing sector—and perhaps restore it to fighting shape. This would not only employ large numbers of Americans, but it will allow for the United States to stay in the fight with an industrial behemoth like China.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
