Russian state-owned defense analysts estimate that current arms sales from Russia total around $13.75 billion currently and will only increase following the ending of violence.
Russia has been seeking an “ironclad” guarantee that would permanently exclude Ukraine from NATO members and require Kyiv to maintain a policy of neutrality as peace talks continue.
“We will demand that ironclad security guarantees become part of this agreement,” Alexander Grushko told Russian media outlet Izvestia. These guarantees should include Ukraine’s neutral status and NATO countries’ refusal to accept it into the alliance.”
It is unclear and unlikely that Ukrainian officials will accept Russia’s terms. However, the Kremlin may be looking beyond the war and is set on regaining the second-to-top spot in global arms sales. The Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Global Arms Trade (TsAMTO) estimates that the annual Russian arms exports could grow to $17 billion once the conflict ends.
The “independent” defense analyst company estimates that current arms sales from Russia total around $13.75 billion.
“TsAMTO estimates that in four years after the end of the special military operation, the Russian military exports may reach $17 to 19 billion a year and maybe more. The forecast considers that all Russian weapons have been tested in battle and are adapted to the realities of modern highly technological war and have been modified and upgraded according to real combat experience of fighting modern arms supplied to Ukraine,” the Russian research firm said in a statement to Tass.
The group further noted that 2024 saw the most extensive global arms trade since the end of the Cold War, citing Western aid provided to Ukraine, “where Soviet-made arms were exhausted, and the West launched large-scale purchases of expensive modern arms for Ukraine.”
Moscow’s Wish for an Arms Export Boom is Wishful Thinking
The TsAMTO report comes just a week after the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its latest report. It found that European arms imports increased by 155 percent between 2020 and 2024, mainly driven by Russia’s increased aggression.
As previously reported, Ukraine topped the list of arms imports for 2024. While that number may drop if (and when) a peace deal is finalized, the report noted that Russia fell from the second spot—with Moscow seeing a 64 percent decline from 21 percent of the total global market from 2015 to just 7.8 percent now.
While the United States maintained its position as the largest exporter of military hardware, France overtook Russia, driven by demand for the Dassault Rafale jet fighter and the Naval Group’s submarines and frigates.
The SIPRI report showed that India and China lowered their dependence on Russian military hardware. While India still maintained its top spot in Russian exports, its “Made in India” initiative will gradually see the number of Russian imports fall. The same likely holds for China, which has ramped up domestic aircraft production, warships, tanks, and small arms.
Moreover, Beijing, Turkey, and South Korea are seeking foreign buyers for their military hardware. That could significantly impact Moscow’s ability to find and retain customers, even if U.S. sales slip due to a backlash over the Trump administration’s potential trade war.
Rosoboronexport quickly disputed the SIPRI report, suggesting it has numerous deals. The fact remains that Moscow has struggled to find buyers for the fifth-generation Sukhoi Su-57 (NATO reporting name Felon), even after taking the aircraft to multiple air shows in just the past year.
The hope of selling other systems, such as the T-14 Armata main battle tank (MBT) and S-400 Triumf air defense system, has also fallen short. Thus, while TsAMTO may estimate that sales of Russian-made weapons and military hardware will increase, the question remains whether the buyers will return.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites, with over 3,200 published pieces and over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author at [email protected].
Image: Shutterstock./Lutsenko Oleksandr
