The Western defense industrial base is struggling to produce enough key military systems for Ukraine—including the vaunted ATACMS missiles.
Last week, at a summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the leadership of Ukraine accepted a 30-day ceasefire. Moscow has been reluctant to agree to the terms of that U.S.-brokered ceasefire, claiming that a 30-day ceasefire will not generate movement toward peace any more than the ceasefire between Russia and NATO in 2014, and the subsequent Minsk peace process, crafted a lasting and equitable settlement to the earlier phases of the conflict. Instead, the Kremlin has stated that a 30-day ceasefire is the equivalent of a one-sided reprieve for Ukraine—a chance for Kyiv’s increasingly embattled forces to receive critical resupply and replenishment at a time when the Russian Armed Forces are getting the better of the Ukrainians at every turn.
Russia’s Concerns About a Ceasefire
Russia is right to be concerned.
After all, contrary to some public reporting in the Western press, Ukraine is running low on vital stocks of NATO-supplied weapons. Just before the Riyadh summit, the Trump administration cut the Ukrainians off from key supplies, funding, and intelligence, in an obvious attempt to squeeze their leaders into accepting a negotiated settlement to the conflict.
However, as soon as Ukraine’s leadership consented to the 30-day ceasefire, the Americans restored the flow of critical supplies, intelligence-sharing, and even money.
This was done even before the Russians could respond to the entreaty from Riyadh. Perhaps this was done as an attempt to pressure Moscow into accepting America’s terms. Or perhaps it was simply irresponsible and unserious negotiating.
Ukraine Is Probably Almost Out of ATACMS
Consider this: beginning in 2023, the Ukrainians received around 500 MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). Without admitting it publicly, it is obvious that the Ukrainians have run dangerously low on these systems, based on the operational tempo of their forces against Russia. ATACMS have proven invaluable to Ukraine’s military in its war with Russia. They need these systems replenished.
Indeed, if these systems are not replenished, the likelihood that Russia will go for an actual negotiated settlement, let alone even a temporary ceasefire, is low. Moscow will seek to exploit its leverage.
With the retreat of Ukraine’s 10,000 or so troops from Russia’s Kursk Oblast, the Russian Army is in the best position it could be to dominate the Ukrainians. Any reprieve in fighting would only potentially strengthen the Ukrainians while weakening the Russians—and Putin is not going to agree to a ceasefire that strengthens the hand of Ukraine’s army while weakening his own.
NATO Cannot Sustain Its Supply Chain or Defense Industrial Base
More interestingly is the fact that many reports suggest there are significant supply chain issues with America’s (and NATO’s) overall ATACMS production line. There are fewer ATACMS available than there have been in years. The Western defense industrial base, unlike Russia’s, is struggling to produce enough key military systems for Ukraine—including the vaunted ATACMS.
ATACMS are a long-range, guided missile system developed by the American defense giant Lockheed Martin. They can strike targets as far away as 190 miles. These supersonic ballistic missiles can be fired from the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which is a US-made, wheeled, mobile rocket launcher system. ATACMS can also be fired from the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS).
The cupboards in NATO’s arsenal are bare. And the ability to replace these lost systems is marginal at best. Rather than stretch the war out, the Trump administration should draw down its commitments to Ukraine while negotiating an end to the war—and an exit for the United States.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Mike Mareen.
