At this point, trying to fix the Sentinel system may simply be a case of throwing good money after bad.
America’s nuclear weapons arsenal is the last line of defense between the United States and a foreign military power intent on destroying it. For this deterrence to be credible, America’s adversaries must fear the kind of nuclear retaliation that the United States could unleash upon an attacker if they ever made a move against America.
But this principle has been undermined by the new administration, which has made repeated statements indicating a desire to disarm and drastically reduce—if not do away with—America’s nuclear weapons arsenal.
This would be a catastrophic mistake. America’s comprehensive national missile defense system—the so-called “Golden Dome” envisioned by President Trump—is basically nonexistent. Even if it were in existence and reliable, though, pursuing unilateral nuclear disarmament and trusting the Chinese or Russians to reciprocate would be a stroke of absurd foolishness on the part of America’s leaders.
What’s Behind Trump’s Calls to End America’s Nukes?
Of course, Trump’s public statements indicating a desire to dismantle America’s nuclear weapons arsenal might be an indicator of something more occurring behind closed doors. Notably, while total disarmament would be a terrible idea, it is true that Northrop Grumman’s LGM-35A Sentinel, America’s next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), is in grave trouble. And if the Sentinel program is placed on the chopping block, it would not be because of Trump’s stated desire to dismantle America’s nuclear weapons arsenal. Rather, it would be because the program is over-budget and late—and it is not clear how this situation can be remedied.
The Sentinel Missile Is a Money Pit
Originally planned as a replacement for America’s aging Minuteman III nuclear ICBMs, this land-based nuclear system was initiated with Northrop Grumman under a contract worth $78 billion awarded in 2020. By 2025, though, the program has proven itself to be a liability. The staggering costs of the program are the biggest problems afflicting it.
But that’s not all.
There have been technical hurdles, such as testing delays for the Sentinel’s reentry vehicles and the solid-fuel motors critical for its 12,300-mile range journey. Northrop has blamed post-COVID supply chain disruption. But this has hardly allayed the concerns of the Defense Department and Congress.
There have also been shifting national priorities as to whether the U.S. should be spending the money on nuclear weapons or other systems. Further, there have been strategic debates about the overall efficacy of America’s nuclear weapons program. All these factors have combined to slow this program down immeasurably—and to drive up the overall cost. And indeed, this cost has been the key complicating factor behind the Sentinel program’s delays.
Since 2020, the price tag on these missiles has exploded from the cost of $78 billion up to $141 billion, a nearly 50 percent increase in costs. Indeed, by 2029—the year that the program was supposed to have completed its output of 400 missiles for the land-based leg of America’s nuclear triad—the Sentinel program is projected to go a whopping 81 percent over its original budget. This has, in turn, triggered a Congressional investigation under the provisions of the Nunn-McCurdy Amendment.
The Nunn-McCurdy Amendment Could Kill the Sentinel Program
As an aside, the Nunn-McCurdy Amendment is an amendment to the 1982 Defense Authorization Act named after Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA) and Congressman Dave McCurdy (D-TX). The provision was meant to curb the excessive costs of the U.S. military’s weapons programs.
Essentially, if the cost per unit on any given weapons acquisition program goes more than 25 percent over budget, Congress is obliged to initiate an investigation. Should that program breach the 50 percent margin—a level that the Sentinel project, at 47 percent over budget, has almost reached—the amendment demands a termination of the program as cost-ineffective.
In other words, we are on the threshold of a Congressional intervention in the Sentinel program. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has indicated his commitment to addressing the Sentinel program’s failures and correcting them. But at this point, trying to fix the Sentinel system may simply be a case of throwing good money after bad.
The CBO Has Proposed Cutting the Sentinel Missile
Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has argued for either serious curbing or canceling the Sentinel to save billions of tax dollars. A better use of that money might be redirected into programs such as hypersonic weapons or even the aforementioned “Golden Dome” national missile defense shield. Until a decision is made, though, America will keep hemorrhaging tax dollars into a program that is unlikely to deliver results.
Whether Trump knows the ins and outs of the Sentinel program is an open question. But when he talks about cutting America’s nuclear defenses, one should assume it is because of failures like these, rather than out of naivete about the international order. The moment that America’s great power foes assess that it is unable to build adequate defenses for itself will be the moment the whole house of cards comes tumbling down.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / 3Dsculptor.
